For tier 1 prospects, the decisions most commonly come down to first team MLS deals or MLS Next Pro deals that turn into MLS deals, a first or second team deal abroad, or a USL first team deal if a player thinks that will lead to more playing opportunities, sooner.

For tier 2 prospects. The most common paths include a hybrid MLS Next Pro / MLS deal, USL first team deal, a second team or academy deal abroad, or a high level NCAA program.

MLS territory rules make things complicated because players are tied to specific clubs and clubs have to pay for the rights of players that are not in their territory, but are protected in each territory. Each club has a different philosophy and threshold for signing academy players. This means that if a player at an academy is not being offered a first team deal by their rights holders, but other clubs would give them a first team, it's not so simple to move clubs. The negotiations between the clubs can be very tricky.

Escobar has been one of the best 2006 players in MLS Next U17 level this year and I am surprised that New England has not played him more in MLS Next Pro for the second team. The club has been aggressive in identifying top talent and moving them along the pathway. They have been playing 2007 born player, Peyton Miller, week in and week out in MLS Next Pro and recently signed him to a homegrown deal. Noel Buck is making waves in MLS. I think Escobar is in this tier of prospect, yet he isn't getting that kind of opportunity — he has only received 26 minutes of play in MLS Next Pro.

This tells me there are two possibilities at play. The first, New England does not rate Escobar as highly as I do. The second, Escobar has been offered a first team or hybrid deal and has turned it down because he does not see a quick path to first team minutes. I think the second scenario is most likely. He hasn't committed to a College program and he doesn't turn 18 until September 2024, so my best guess is that USL clubs are scrambling for his services. Escobar is a player that I think could impact a USL club right away, similar to the level of impact that Fidel Barajas is having with Charleston Battery.

David Vazquez has been one of most improved players in MLS Next this season. He has become a star of the Philadelphia Union U17 team and a U.S. Youth International and lately he has been performing very well for Union II in MLS Next Pro. You can get a strong sense of what a club thinks of it's U17 players by seeing how many Next Pro minutes they get once the season starts up. Vazquez already has 600 minutes and has grown into the level seamlessly. This shows that Philly see him as a future first team player.

Vazquez would likely already be on a first team contract if it wasn't for MLS territory rules. Vazquez grew up in Los Angeles and before he moved to the east coast to play for Philadelphia Union, he played for SoCal powerhouse Total Futbol Academy. It is highly likely that Philadelphia is in negotiation with one or both LA Galaxy and LAFC for the rights to Vazquez. Once that is resolved, I believe Vazquez will become a homegrown signee.

Olney, like Vazquez, has been a bit of a revelation in the second half of this season and he has been playing extremely well in MLS Next Pro. Olney is a very young 2006 player and is showing why promising players born late in their birth year are always ones to keep an eye on.

Philly has prioritize Olney in MLS Next Pro this year and he has earned over 700 minutes. In that time he has contributed three goals and four assists, remarkable for a player his age. Olney is now very much in the homegrown contract category and while he can leave for Europe early because of his Italian passport, I think Philly will be able to retain him.

Micah Burton is the top academy player in their program and has been for a few years. He signed a Next Pro deal for this season, but it does not currently have an option to turn in to a first team deal in 2024. In order for Austin to do that they will need to negotiate with Minnesota United for his rights. LAFC recently paid 50K to Minnesota for the rights of Bajung Darboe, so expect the price tag to be somewhere around that figure, potentially a little higher. Burton has been playing regularly for Austin FC II with 266 minutes and a goal.

Gitau was offered a first team by Houston Dynamo, but the player, his family and representation decided against it and have since left the program.

I believe there should be some news on Gitau's next club in the next few months.

Heard has been with St. Louis' academy for almost two years after moving from Philadelphia Union's academy. It's been reported that Heard has an agreement to move to Bayer Leverkusen when he turns 18, but he has a late December birthday, so that wouldn't be possible until the end of next year.

Heard's rights belong to D.C. United, a historically challenging club to negotiate rights with. St. Louis is likely in the middle of that negotiation and trying to get his homegrown rights so that they can bring him into the first team between now and when he leaves for Germany

Pelayo and his team are working on trying to secure a first team deal with Portland, but that is a club that isn't very invested in their academy players, so it's unclear if a first team is going to go through. Pelayo is the top rated player in their academy, so if they are not going to sign him, it doesn't give much hope for other academy players in their program.

Pelayo will have a lot of other options if it does not work out with Portland. USL and Mexican clubs are also interested.

Molina has been one of the most improved players in the 2006 class this year and the best player on FC Dallas' U17 team. He's impressed FC Dallas and earned minutes in MLS Next Pro which indicates that they are leaning towards committing to him long term.

On the surface, FC Dallas looks like they have too many young right-backs, but Justin Che is most likely going to head back to Europe this summer and Collin Smith is out of contract this season. I think Molina's next step is going depend on what FC Dallas think of Collin Smith and if they want to extend him.

Granados is most certainly a player that Orlando would like to sign to a first team deal. He has been playing with their Next Pro team for the last two years and he received his first team debut recently while on a short-term loan.

The problem that Orlando has is that Granados is likely being targeted heavily by LaLiga clubs. Granados recently played for the Spain U17 team in the European Championships and played well. Any Spanish Youth International that is not in a Spanish academy is going to be on LaLiga club's radar. I think it is going to be difficult for Orlando to keep Granados away from Spain. They will likely have to offer a max homegrown deal and an aggressive path to first team minutes to keep him around.

I would not have considered Reid-Brown a homegrown player this time last year, but he has added a lot of positive attacking elements to his game to go along with a great defensive game. Orlando believes in Reid-Brown as evidence by his opportunities in Next Pro the last two years. Good left-back prospects are hard to find and I expect Orlando will commit to Reid-Brown in the form of a first team contract.

Rudisill is the top LA Galaxy prospect from the 2006 class and I believe he already has or will be offered a first team deal. The challenge is that Rudisill has an Italian passport and could leave for Europe before his 18th birthday. I’ve heard that he has interested from a top Dutch club and he could be persuaded to leave Los Angeles.

Delkus does not get as much attention as some guys on this list, but he is a highly productive and versatile player with good tools. It does not seem like Dell’s and St. Louis are too committed to one another because Delkus has not appeared in any MLS Next games when other players in his class have. That leads me to believe that there are no plans to continue with St. Louis too much longer. Delkus’ profile is tailor made for high level NCAA soccer. I expect him to have a successful career for SLU and eventually come back to the MLS through the SuperDraft.

Borso is another more under the radar players that I think is worthy of a first team deal, but that does not look likely with Chicago Fire. Borso has trained with the first and second team, but has not yet played with Fire II in MLS Next Pro. Borso is committed to one of the best college soccer programs, Wake Forest University. There is also some interest from Bundesliga clubs and USL, but my bet is Borso goes to Wake and becomes a high SuperDraft pick or homegrown signing as an underclassmen.

Eyestone is the top 2006 keeper in MLS Next, in my opinion, and he meets my threshold for a homegrown signing. The challenge is FC Dallas recently gave a first team contract to Antonio Carrera, who is another very promising young keeper. This makes it difficult to see a path to consistent opportunity at the Next Pro level.
Eyestone graduated high school a year early and is an early enrollee to Duke University. Eyestone will likely go to Duke at least for a year or two to get consistent playing time opportunities and then make his way back to Dallas on a first team deal.

Nixon is a player that really caught my attention this year. His long-term position is at right-back and I think he has enough tools to be a MLS starter level at some point. Nixon does not seem to be on a fast track to a first team deal and he is committed to UCLA. He is a player that I could see excelling in USL fairly quickly, but I am not sure if there is interest at this point.

Hawkins is currently on a one year Next Pro deal and I do not believe it is hybrid deal that would turn into a first team deal at the end of this year, but I could be wrong. Either way, Hawkins looks like a player that Seattle values and he is likely on track for a first team deal at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.

Perkovich is getting some opportunities in MLS Next Pro which is a good sign that the club values him. I could see a future where Perkovich takes a similar path to David Ruiz where he signs a Next Pro deal and earns a first team contract over the next year or two. Perkovich does have a Croatian passport, so there also could be opportunities in Europe that pull him away from South Beach.

Wibowo, like Nixon, does not look like a player that is going to get a homegrown deal from LAFC. Wibowo is committed to University of Portland and my best is that he will end up there.

Vargas took big steps forward this year and is now on the radar for FC Dallas a potential homegrown player. Given the backlog at striker for FC Dallas, I believe they will be patient and offer Vargas a Next Pro deal with the potential of becoming a first team contract down the line.

Perez is not your typical Philadelphia Union prospect in that he isn’t the most athletic player, but he does have great skill. Normally this is not the type of player the Union would sign, but he is getting a lot of opportunity in Next Pro and playing pretty well. He is kind of a poor man’s Jack McGlynn and assuming McGlynn and Sullivan won’t be in Philadelphia much longer, I expect Philadelphia to replenish the roster with a few academy signings and Perez might end up getting a deal.

The Crew are starting to become more committed to completing their academy pathway. Habroune recently signed a Next Pro/First team hybrid deal and will likely become a first team player next year. I think Presthus could become one of the next to get the same deal. He is committed to Maryland, but I think a first team deal could keep him in Columbus.